Fuzzy Time Series Optimization using Particle Swarm Optimization for Forecasting the Number of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FBB) of Palm Oil

Abstract

Palm oil is a reliable vegetable oil producer because the oil produced has advantages than oils from other plants. The amount of Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFB) raw material from Palm oil has a significant impact on the palm oil production process. Therefore, we need a method to forecasting the amount of palm oil (FFB). One of the suitable forecasting methods is fuzzy time series (FTS). However, FTS still has shortcomings such as innacurate determination of the interval length. For this reason, we need to optimize FTS interval to get optimal forecasting. This research implements Particle Swarm Optimization as the optimization method, FTS Chen-Hsu as the forecast method, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as the measurement of error. The optimization result using PSO produce an error value of 2.0262% smaller than FTS 3.7108%.